Seems like there is something after animal spirits, maybe robot spirits: the market propels forward on its financialization energy. Obviously it can't last forever, but remember, some people could really run a long time on cocaine, too.
“potential “2008 real estate” analogy in AI infrastructure.” Yeah, like heaps of phony baloney contracts supporting massive borrowing. When all those credit-built data centers can no longer service debt, the cascade begins.
I think we have some roller coaster days ahead of us.
What strikes me is that this is probably going to pan out in a way that similar to the previous industrial revolution. Historical transformative technologies have often got ahead of the economics even though the ideas are great. For example, the Industrial Revolution changed everything, but it still required huge investment in factories, energy, transport, machinery and management before the benefits were fully realised.
In the late 1830s, the world was struck by recession caused in the main by the machines that where being introduced into factories. The case for the machine was that it could do more with less, but in reality, the machines depended on an enormous supporting infrastructure. The wage bill may have shrunk in one corner of the ledger, but it reappeared elsewhere as capital expenditure. I think we are going through a similar process now.
I think the outlook for entry level jobs is good. AI helps accelerate learning, so it can help younger people learn faster, find information and compete in the workplace. Universities may need to reinvent themselves to justify the cost.
Lets be very honest here for everybodys sake. Before the war, before this bond market rout, the math on AI profitability did not add up. We need so high productivitx gains on the economy level to justify the spending that it would be unprecedented in human history. But not just that. For companies like goog, msft 20-40 roe was the norm. Now if the AI part gives like a positive roe we are cheering. There is a huge re-rating waiting to hapoen.
Every Republican administration since Reagan has left their Democratic successors with a recession, depression or the like. Which they then Fix and somehow magically get blamed for starting and the cycle continues.
I've been around, seen some shit, and paid attention.
Candide would hear that Goldman paragraph and reply, “All that is very well… but we must cultivate our garden” – i.e., stop spinning metaphysical optimism about AI and focus on concrete, tended realities of cash flows, balance sheets, and lived outcomes. • Candide’s response would be to strip away the euphemisms and ask simple questions: What is actually being earned? At what cost of capital and political risk? How many real workers, customers, and communities benefit if the story disappoints? And then to invest accordingly, without assuming the world – or AI – will arrange itself for the best.
Oh man, someone asked *HR professionals* about what jobs are required? I can't imagine a less qualified cohort to answer.
Seems like there is something after animal spirits, maybe robot spirits: the market propels forward on its financialization energy. Obviously it can't last forever, but remember, some people could really run a long time on cocaine, too.
Why are traders always a coked-up, bald middle-aged guy? Is there a different stock photo available?
“potential “2008 real estate” analogy in AI infrastructure.” Yeah, like heaps of phony baloney contracts supporting massive borrowing. When all those credit-built data centers can no longer service debt, the cascade begins.
I think we have some roller coaster days ahead of us.
What strikes me is that this is probably going to pan out in a way that similar to the previous industrial revolution. Historical transformative technologies have often got ahead of the economics even though the ideas are great. For example, the Industrial Revolution changed everything, but it still required huge investment in factories, energy, transport, machinery and management before the benefits were fully realised.
In the late 1830s, the world was struck by recession caused in the main by the machines that where being introduced into factories. The case for the machine was that it could do more with less, but in reality, the machines depended on an enormous supporting infrastructure. The wage bill may have shrunk in one corner of the ledger, but it reappeared elsewhere as capital expenditure. I think we are going through a similar process now.
I wrote about this only recently: https://andygrahambooks.substack.com/p/dancing-with-the-devil-in-the-pale?r=6j0qit
I think the outlook for entry level jobs is good. AI helps accelerate learning, so it can help younger people learn faster, find information and compete in the workplace. Universities may need to reinvent themselves to justify the cost.
Lets be very honest here for everybodys sake. Before the war, before this bond market rout, the math on AI profitability did not add up. We need so high productivitx gains on the economy level to justify the spending that it would be unprecedented in human history. But not just that. For companies like goog, msft 20-40 roe was the norm. Now if the AI part gives like a positive roe we are cheering. There is a huge re-rating waiting to hapoen.
Every Republican administration since Reagan has left their Democratic successors with a recession, depression or the like. Which they then Fix and somehow magically get blamed for starting and the cycle continues.
I've been around, seen some shit, and paid attention.
Candide would hear that Goldman paragraph and reply, “All that is very well… but we must cultivate our garden” – i.e., stop spinning metaphysical optimism about AI and focus on concrete, tended realities of cash flows, balance sheets, and lived outcomes. • Candide’s response would be to strip away the euphemisms and ask simple questions: What is actually being earned? At what cost of capital and political risk? How many real workers, customers, and communities benefit if the story disappoints? And then to invest accordingly, without assuming the world – or AI – will arrange itself for the best.