Investor surveys are fascinating because they reliably produce two things: a ranked list of obvious worries, and no corresponding change in behavior. Everyone in the survey agrees there's something wrong. But nobody is willing to act as if that agreement means anything.
Love the ‘no one knows anything’ framing—it’s a perfect reminder that market surveys capture sentiment, not certainty. Passive investing, tech bubble hysteria, and all these thematic worries tell us more about human psychology than actual risk. The real edge comes from spotting what isn’t being said and applying lateral thinking, not following the herd.
Investor surveys are fascinating because they reliably produce two things: a ranked list of obvious worries, and no corresponding change in behavior. Everyone in the survey agrees there's something wrong. But nobody is willing to act as if that agreement means anything.
Love the ‘no one knows anything’ framing—it’s a perfect reminder that market surveys capture sentiment, not certainty. Passive investing, tech bubble hysteria, and all these thematic worries tell us more about human psychology than actual risk. The real edge comes from spotting what isn’t being said and applying lateral thinking, not following the herd.
Biggest risk for 2026: Trump Media buys the FT. And happy holidays to the Alphaville team!
😬
Ｗｈａｔｓａｐｐ➕𝟭↡𝟱𝟭𝟴↡𝟱𝟭𝟮↡𝟭𝟱𝟴𝟬
My pick for 2026 for biggest risk is the treasury basis trade blows up. Again.
Ｗｈａｔｓａｐｐ➕𝟭↡𝟱𝟭𝟴↡𝟱𝟭𝟮↡𝟭𝟱𝟴𝟬
Prediction markets is only non AI thing left on the internet https://nimnim1.substack.com/p/poly-hell
Biggest risk: inflation re-ignites and helps put a lead on the AI frenzy (close to #5 but more acute). Nice recap article and great charts
No one has the true unit cost of AI built into their P&L yet. Yet big tech has it fully baked into their valuations 👀